I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at August 2010 SST Anomaly Update
#################MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP
The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for August 2010 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below. The central equatorial Pacific SST anomalies are continuing their drop.
http://i53.tinypic.com/161nbqd.jpgAugust 2010 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.22 deg C)
MONTHLY OVERVIEW
Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are well below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña. The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is -1.2 deg C. Weekly data has dropped below -1.5 deg C (-1.58 deg C).
Global SST anomalies dropped very little this month, -0.006 deg C. For all intents and purposes, there was no change. The slight decline in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.022 deg C) was greater than the rise in the Northern Hemisphere (+0.014 deg C).
http://i54.tinypic.com/35b7fb5.jpgGlobal
Monthly Change = -0.006 deg C
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http://i51.tinypic.com/osgvop.jpgNINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = -0.22 deg C
EAST INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC
The SST anomalies in the East Indian and West Pacific made a slight rise this month. Will they continue to rise, noticeably, in response to the La Niña as they have in the past?
I’ve added this dataset in an attempt to draw attention to what appears to be the upward step responses. Using the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events as references, East Indian-West Pacific SST Anomalies peak about 7 to 9 months after the peak of the NINO3.4 SST anomalies, so we shouldn’t expect any visible sign of a step change for almost 18 to 24 months. We’ll just have to watch and see.
http://i53.tinypic.com/2ijrae1.jpgEast Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = +0.029 deg C
Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Niño events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And for the discussions of the processes that cause the rise, refer to More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Niña Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Niño Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents -AND- More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Niño & La Niña Events
The animations included in post La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos further help explain the reasons why East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events.
NOTE ABOUT THE DATA
The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to August 2010.
MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SST UPDATES
http://i54.tinypic.com/rsgbpt.jpgNorthern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.014 deg C
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http://i56.tinypic.com/2a85awo.jpgSouthern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.022 deg C
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http://i55.tinypic.com/2dt501i.jpgNorth Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = +0.120 deg C
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http://i53.tinypic.com/33de1de.jpgSouth Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = -0.120 deg C
Note: I discussed the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic.
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http://i56.tinypic.com/fk5r82.jpgNorth Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = -0.030 Deg C
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http://i51.tinypic.com/1zgay3a.jpgSouth Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = -0.036 deg C
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http://i54.tinypic.com/2hgh1qh.jpgIndian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.023 deg C
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http://i56.tinypic.com/9jq5on.jpgArctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = +0.137 deg C
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http://i56.tinypic.com/xkynnb.jpgSouthern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.044 deg C
WEEKLY NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES
The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data illustrate OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are -1.158 deg C.
http://i56.tinypic.com/2aes3l3.jpgWeekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)
Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are now lower than the values for the same week during the previous transitions to major satellite-era La Niña events.
http://i53.tinypic.com/4volcg.jpgLa Niña Evolution Comparison
SOURCE
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
or
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
