I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events
#############INTRODUCTION
This is Part 3 of a multipart post. It addresses critical comments about my earlier posts that dealt with the multiyear aftereffects of major traditional El Nino events. Two specific major traditional El Nino events, those in 1986/87/88 and 1997/98, caused Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans to remain at elevated levels during the subsequent La Nina events. These SST residuals, what I have called step changes in earlier posts for the sake of simplicity, bias global SST upward during the La Nina events and give the impression of a gradual increase, one that is erroneously attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Links to Parts 1 and 2:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents.
Part 3 is a relatively short post in comparison to the first two in this series. It illustrates very simply that East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise during both phases of major traditional ENSO events. That is, it shows that the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans can warm in response to both an El Nino event and to the La Nina that follows it.
THE DIPOLE EFFECT
In Part 2 (More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...) I discussed the processes that cause the East-West dipole effect between East Pacific SST anomalies and the SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans. A .gif animation, Figure 1, shows the SST anomalies for the SST anomalies for November 1997 (the peak of the 1997/98 El Nino) and for November 1998 (the peak of the 1998/99 La Nina) and shows the resulting El Nino-La Nina seesaw relationship of SST anomalies between those two regions.
http://i48.tinypic.com/xc6s0l.gifFigure 1
EAST INDIAN AND WEST PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES WARM FIRST IN RESPONSE TO THE EL NINO
Part 1 (More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans) discussed how the changes in atmospheric circulation in response to the El Nino travel from west to east, with the Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies peaking 4 to 5 months after the El Nino and the Indian Ocean SST anomalies lagging by 5 to 7 months. These changes in atmospheric circulation continue east and raise SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans. Refer to the 1986/87/88 and the 1997/98 El Nino events in Figure 2.
http://i46.tinypic.com/epks8.pngFigure 2
INVERTING NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES ILLUSTRATES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LA NINA EVENTS AND EAST INDIAN AND WEST PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES
After the changes in atmospheric circulation begin to raise the SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, the warm water that was released from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool returns to the surface of the East Indian and West Pacific Ocean, raising the SST anomalies there to higher levels. The SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans are then maintained by the La Nina. To illustrate this relationship, I’ve inverted NINO 3.4 SST anomalies and shifted them upwards by 0.2 deg C. Refer to Figure 3.
http://i48.tinypic.com/28bhgjk.pngFigure 3
CLOSING
Since both the El Nino and La Nina portions of major traditional El Nino events warm the SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, their SST anomalies appear to rise in steps. Ocean currents then blend these natural increases in SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans with the other oceans, raising the SST anomalies globally. The resulting increases in global SST anomalies are mistakenly attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
SOURCE
SST Anomaly data and maps are available from the NOAA NOMADS webpage:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=
